Today I’ll make a winning chance comparison between the famous Mega Million Lottery and the under-the-radar Fomo2Moon dapp which is the potential lottery model in the future.
For those who don’t know what Fomo2Moon is, how it works and why is it there, please read my previous article.
In this article, I’ll just show some figures and statistics that I found out after one week experiencing Fomo2moon and studying its lottery business model, alongside with its counterparts. In this DApp, there are 3 types of Prizes:
- Grand Prize: There 3 of them, each amounts to 63.8 ETH and will be rewarded once 1 of the 2 timers reaches zero. Each round there is a slight chance that no one wins this prize.
- Major Prize: anytime a ticket purchase transaction valued from 0.1ETH above is made, its buyer get an automatic draw from the smart contract to win the Major prize valued at 60% of the Major chest at that time with a winning rate of 1 in 1000. Major prize now amounts to 25.7 ETH (equal 2982.4452 USDT), by the time of writing.
- Minor Prize: Same as Major prize but smaller in value. It now amounts to 2.83 ETH (equal 328.47762 USDT), by the time of writing.
What we should focus on today is the Major and Minor prizes, since they are the most achievable as far as I’ve calculated. With a $12 budget, you can purchase 50 Fomo2Moon Tickets (approximately 0.1 ETH) for a combined chance of 0.1% to win the Major Prize of 2982.4452 USDT AND 0.1% to win Minor Prize of 328.47762 USDT.
Now let’s have look at the famous Mega-Millions Lottery:
We’re not gonna talk about the Jackpot or the second prize here since those prizes are pretty out of reach. What I want to press is the 4th prize: 4 matching numbers for $500. Its normal odds of winning is 1 in 38,792 based on NYC Mega Million document for a $2 ticket. And if you want to maximize your prize with the same amount of matching numbers, you can add the Megaplier option, which costs an additional $1 per play. The Megaplier is a number drawn at random that multiplies any prize (except the jackpot) by 2,3,4 or 5 times. So if you win the 4th prize of $500 with that 1 in 38,792 winning chance, you can earn more with the Megaplier as follows: x2 for $1,000, x3 for $1,500, x4 for $2,000, x5 for $2,500. However, the odds for each Megaplier appearing are as follows: 1 in 3 for 2x, 1 in 2.5 for 3x, 1 in 5 for 4x, 1 in 15 for 5x.
However, the odds for each Megaplier appearing are as follows:
That means you have to spend $2 + $1 = $3 to “earn” a winning chance of $2,500 at (1 in 38,792) * (1 in 15) = 0.00017%
Now suppose that you buy many different tickets to increase the chance of winning (since now you cover more numbers), and your total budget for it is now around $12 ~ 4 different tickets with one Megaplier for each, increasing your chance of winning $2,500 by 4 times, that is 0.00017% * 4 = 0.00068%.
As a result, with a $12 budget, let pit these 2 choices against each other to see which one make more sense to you:
- Buy 4 different tickets with one Megaplier each for a 0.00068% chance to win $2,500.
- Buy 50 Fomo2Moon Tickets a 0.1% chance to win 2982.4452 USDT (Major Prize) AND a 0.1% chance to win 328.47762 USDT (Minor Prize).
Here’s the statics so far as the 2nd round has started for nearly one day:
Based on the “Sum rewarded” amount, representing all the ETH distributed, true enough just like their positioning:
“a Blockchain Lottery (DApp) that doesn’t hoard your money, but actually redistributes almost ALL incoming Ether back at lucky players”
Around 8 days and nearly 1000 ETH have been rewarded, that’s something for me, especially since its media coverage is still poor. And that’s, as I think, is the only problem of this Dapp so far: its marketing strategy is not performing well. It could be that they expected the market to be more adoptive and responsive than this. Or else, it’s could be their plan to test the water before jumping to the pool with full force. Let’s see what will happen this week.
Ratio in use:
1 ETH = $120
1 USDT = 1 USD
Citations:
Cing ciripit
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